After a major disappointment from ALK-Abelló in April, the allergy vaccine company’s second quarter results should confirm that ALK is on track to meet its annual forecast.

Tablet sales in Europe lagged behind expectations during the winter months which management explained by the fact that pollen allergy sufferers were kept out of the clinic, because doctors were busy with respiratory viruses such as RSV, influenza, and corona.

However, the second quarter is unlikely to be a turning point for ALK, according to DNB.

Vaccine treatment against pollen allergy typically begins at the end of the year leading up to the next pollen season. Therefore, there will hardly be much encouragement when the focus shifts to sales of tablet vaccines in Europe in Thursday’s report.

”All eyes are likely to be on the weak growth in European tablet sales. The biggest disappointment in recent quarters has been the slowdown in the company’s main growth driver, tablets, driven by Europe.”

”However, we do not expect much growth for tablets in Europe in the second quarter, as the next patient initiation season does not start until the fourth quarter,” Jesper Ingildsen, analyst at DNB, writes in an update.

Danske Bank also doubts that the second quarter will be much different than the first quarter when it comes to European tablet sales.

”The focus in the second quarter will likely be on the estimated continued weak growth in tablet sales in Europe. We forecast 0% growth in Europe and a back-end loaded 2023 in line with the consensus gathered by the company,” wrote Thomas Bowers, analyst at Danske Bank, in his update earlier in August.

However, not everything is at a standstill at ALK.

According to consensus, analysts expect total sales growth in the second quarter of 7.5% in local currency compared to 7% in the first quarter. ALK will thus need to accelerate growth in the second half of the year to reach the midpoint of its 2023 sales forecast of 7-11% growth in local currency.

Despite subdued expectations for tablet sales, ALK maintained its annual forecast in April, as sales in other parts of the business have surprised positively. This concerns sales of the injection and drop-based allergy vaccines.

(Translated using DeepL with additional editing by Christian Radich Hoffman)