Novo Nordisk risks disappointing in the first quarter compared to analysts’ estimates, warns investment banking and capital markets firm Jefferies in a note. The financial house’s own estimates are thus well below consensus.

For the first quarter, Jefferies now estimates a revenue that is around 9% lower than the analysts’ forecasts as a whole. 

The exchange house refers to the fact that there still hasn’t been an upturn in the sales curve for Wegovy in the US and that growth in the US GLP-1 market for the treatment of type 2 diabetes has slowed down. 

Furthermore, Jefferies expects Novo Nordisk’s operating profit, EBIT, to be 16% lower than consensus in the first quarter. 

On Thursday, Novo Nordisk shares fell 2.3% to DKK 881.10 (USD 128) in a market that seems to be characterized by sector rotation. In this case, this means that growth stocks are preferred over defensive pharmaceutical stocks, among others. 

For the full year 2024, Jefferies now predicts top-line growth for Novo Nordisk of 22% and growth in Novo Nordisk’s operating profit of 24% - both in local currency. 

This is within Novo Nordisk’s 2024 guidance of 18-26% top-line growth and 21-29% operating profit growth. 

For 2025, Jefferies lowers its estimates by 3-4% to take into account that the gross margin will be diluted in connection with Novo Nordisk’s acquisition of three factories from Catalent.

(Translated using DeepL with additional editing by Catherine Brett)